Short-term forecasts, so-called “Nowcastings” are usually below 6 h and are necessary for an optimized regulation of the wind turbines and intra-day trading and also ensure the safety of the power grid. Since the forecast range is so short, an only-model based approach is not appropriate. Nowcasting is based on both, the forecast model and the latest online wind speed measurements.

The shorter the forecast range, the closer will the future wind speed be to the wind speed of the last few hours. Therefore measurements gain importance the shorter the forecast range is.

A good “Nowcasting” requires online power production data (or wind measurements) and huge computer resources. It makes use of statistical models and advances techniques such as Kalman filter or Neuronal networks.

We are currently testing simplified techniques for short-term forecasts.